The Ministry of Finance clarified the direction of a "more proactive" fiscal policy. SHFE tin may continue to fluctuate rangebound at 275,000-283,000 yuan/mt [SMM Tin Futures Review].

March 25, 2025 Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2504) continued to fluctuate downward today, closing at 274,870 yuan/mt, down 1,750 yuan or 0.63% from the previous day. The intraday trading range was 273,320-277,300 yuan/mt, with trading volume shrinking 15% from the previous day. The price center remained in the range of 275,000-283,000 yuan/mt. The Boao Forum for Asia predicted that Asia's weighted real GDP growth rate would reach 4.5% in 2025, with East Asia growing at 4.3%, South Asia at 5.9%, and digital trade and service trade (such as China's cross-border e-commerce, up 10.8% YoY) becoming growth highlights. Fiscal and monetary policy coordination: The Ministry of Finance clarified a "more proactive" fiscal policy direction, expanding government bond scale and increasing investment in technological innovation; the central bank implemented MLF operation mechanism reform, releasing market-oriented pricing signals and easing local government bond issuance pressure. The policy mix boosted market confidence, but attention should be paid to the potential disturbance of idle funds on commodity liquidity. Cautious sentiment: The open interest of the most-traded contract fluctuated at low levels for three consecutive days, with intensified competition between bulls and bears at the 280,000 yuan/mt level. Some shorts stopped losses and exited but did not form a trend of increasing positions. Spot market: Smelters maintained strong pricing intentions, but downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand, with a weak trading atmosphere. Short-term trend: SHFE tin may continue to fluctuate in the range of 275,000-283,000 yuan/mt, with a breakthrough depending on unexpected changes in the DRC situation or macro policies.